Home Become a Member Contact Us WinPicks Software Scoresline Sports Forum

Forums   Register   Profile   Inbox   Address Book   Subscribe   My Forums   Search   FAQ   Login   Log Out
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex   Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [Market Talk] >> Technical Analysis >> RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex Page: <<   < prev  24 25 26 27 [28]
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/10/2019 10:45:10 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

AUD / USD pair
In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.

For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 541
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/12/2019 9:30:21 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
EUR/USD. "Bear feast" cancelled: the ECB disappointed sellers of the pair

The proposition "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" summed up many EUR/USD traders today. It turned out the other way around: over the past few days, the pair has been selling on rumors of a large-scale easing of the ECB's monetary policy, and after the news, the euro then updated its high of the day and week. This situation confirms another notorious fact: anything can happen in the market, and even the most recognized algorithms sometimes fail.

However, so far it is only a short-term reaction of traders. There is no talk of any turning point in the trend, since the price has remained in the same positions as all previous days. If you do not take into account the 150-point price fluctuation, then we can say that the September meeting of the ECB did not affect the value of the pair. Of course, this fact looks anomalous, since all the decisions and theses voiced at today's meeting were against the euro. Perhaps, with one exception: Mario Draghi did not announce a further reduction in the interest rate. In other words, the entourage of previous events played a key role today. Representatives of the ECB, all kinds of experts, analysts, currency strategists and the successor of Mario Draghi - Christine Lagarde - all of them have been aggravating the situation for several weeks, preparing the market for large-scale easing of monetary policy parameters.

The European Central Bank as a whole met the expectations of the market by lowering the interest rate by 0.1% and announcing the resumption of QE from November 1 by 2.6 trillion euros with a monthly volume of 20 billion euros. But, as you know, "appetite comes with eating": market participants were ready for more drastic measures (lowering rates to -0.60%, and QE with a monthly volume of 40-50 billion). At least on the eve of today's meeting, precisely these values were discussed among experts (which, in fact, was responsible for the downward impulse of EUR/USD at the beginning of this week). Therefore, when the central bank announced its decision, the pair fell to the bottom of the 9th figure on emotions. Then the price bounced back - when it became clear that the regulator, firstly, didn't use the arsenal of available tools "to the fullest", and secondly, it made it clear that it did not intend to take the interest rate further into the negative area for the foreseeable future.

A similar situation was seen in December 2015. Back then, the European regulator abandoned the idea of using shock therapy, focusing on the option of a gradual and longer-term effect. In exactly the same way as now, four years ago, everyone was expecting and discussing the rate reduction during the previous several months. They also spoke with the same confidence about the expansion of the stimulating program: opinions differed only with regard to the size of the increase. However, the regulator only reduced the rate and did not resort to large-scale integrated measures. Moreover, Draghi made it clear that the ECB will not return to the issue of easing monetary policy for at least several months, giving the European economy time to recover. After this meeting, the EUR/USD pair rebounded and strengthened by 300 points, although many predicted the euro collapse.

Now the situation is somewhat different. On the one hand, Mario Draghi is unlikely to initiate and support the issue of further easing of monetary policy - at least until November. But his cadence ends in the last month of autumn, so the ECB's further steps will largely depend on Lagarde, who has already announced that the monetary policy is adaptive "in the foreseeable future", and the nature of the regulator's further actions will depend on the conditions of the financial market . She also said that she "does not believe" that the central bank has set an effective lower limit for interest rates. In other words, the future head of the ECB fairly transparently hinted at an acceptable backlash in this matter. This means that, hypothetically, the European regulator may not be limited to one round of lowering rates further into the negative area.

That is why the reaction of the EUR/USD bulls to the results of the September meeting is relatively limited. I can assume that if it were not for the "Lagarde factor", then the pair would be at least in the middle of the 11th figure, and maybe it would test more significant price heights. But for now, EUR/USD is trying to overcome only the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1060. If the bulls consolidate on this target, then the price will be the second resistance level of 1.1150 - this is the upper line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe. In general, the next critical "test" for the pair will take place next week, when the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. If the members of the US regulator, in contrast to the ECB, exceed the "dovish" expectations of investors, then the large-scale correction will be continued - up to 12-13 figures.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 542
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/16/2019 12:11:07 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

Posts: 177
Joined: 7/19/2017
Status: offline
Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday and this Monday morning, the euro lingered on the resistance of the balance line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the daily scale. The euro is still calm about the price growth of oil and gold this morning due to an attack by drones on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Oil has jumped 9.56% since the opening of the session. According to media reports, oil production in this country fell by 50%, which seems unlikely. Nevertheless, an impetus has been set, and with the increase in oil prices, the euro is likely to continue to grow, the target of which will be the area where the line of the price channel, the Fibonacci level is 110.0% and the MACD line at the price of 1.1152.



On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line (indicator red), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. In the framework of the main increasing scenario, the euro may drop, but not lower than the support of the MACD line on H4 (1.1023). Leaving below opens an alternative scenario with the prospect of a decline to 1.0926.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 543
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/16/2019 10:53:33 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
GBP/USD: the pound still hopes that the fog around Brexit will clear up

Over the past week, the pound has strengthened against the US dollar by almost 1.2% amid expectations that London and Brussels may soften their position on Brexit.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said that he was still focused on concluding a deal with the European Union under the terms of the country's withdrawal from the bloc.

"If we can make enough progress over the next few days, I intend to go to the EU summit on October 17 and conclude an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens both on both sides of the English channel and on both sides of the border in Ireland. I believe that we can do this, and I believe that such an agreement meets the interests of not only the UK, but also our European partners," said B. Johnson.

At the same time, he continues to insist that he will not ask the EU to provide another delay for Brexit.

In turn, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that there are no reasons for optimism about Brexit.

"The UK has not provided any alternative proposals on the Irish border for a month and a half of the functioning of the new government and half a year from the moment when the bill, agreed with the 27 EU members, entered the British Parliament, but was never ratified by it. In the coming weeks, we should see whether the government of B. Johnson is able to make any proposals that have legal force," M. Barnier said.

Recall that in Britain the law adopted by the country's Parliament came into force, according to which the government is obliged to ask the EU for a new deferral of Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on a new agreement on withdrawal by October 19.

B. Johnson intends to ignore the new law and is ready to fight for it in the British courts.

Today, the British Prime Minister met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg.

"The leaders agreed on the need to negotiate more intensively on Brexit and start holding daily meetings of representatives of the parties. An agreement was also reached on political negotiations between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The dialogue between president Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson will also continue," the office of the head of the British government said in a statement.

It is assumed that if the parties manage to reach a compromise, then the GBP/USD pair may well rise to the level of 1.2700.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 544
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/17/2019 10:03:19 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Oil flies into the stratosphere

Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.

After a member of the royal family became the Minister of Energy for the first time in history, many suspected that something was wrong. Prices rose by leaps and bounds, and the attack on Abqaiq is perceived as a bolt from the blue, but only by a majority. When a crime occurs, one always wonders, "who benefits?" For a balanced budget, Saudi Arabia needed oil at $80 per barrel, but before the appointment of Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister, there were few reasons for a rapid rally. Reducing OPEC production did not help: the Americans were actively increasing production, and China was cutting demand. For a sharp rise in prices, force majeure was needed, and in an amazing way it became a reality.

One-day oil jumps

According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 545
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/18/2019 11:35:08 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 19, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar successfully broke the support area, consisting of two lines - balance and MACD of price channels and indicator lines. Moreover, the breakthrough occurred today on quite good employment data. The growth of new jobs amounted to 34.7 thousand against the expectation of 10.0 thousand and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Against this background, the level rose slightly to 5.3% from 5.2%, which is a fairly strong sign of the market's intention to sell the AUD/USD pair at an accelerated pace.

The Immediate target of 0.6678 at the support line for the red price channel coincides with the low of August 7 that can be reached in three days. Then, the blue channel comes into play with support in the region of 0.6605. On the four-hour chart, the price is in free fall and there are no signs of a stop in the correction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 546
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/19/2019 10:32:25 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 629
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Dramatic roles of the pound: a candidate for decline and a source of tension for the market

The UK currency is constantly under the scrutiny of market participants. The reason for this, analysts believe that it is the tense situation around Brexit, creating a danger for the pound itself as well as other currencies.

Many world currencies are involved in the orbit of the British pound. The currency of Great Britain in one way or another affects the means of payment of other countries, and currently this effect is negative. The pound's dynamics were significantly affected by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK on inflation.

According to the report, the base consumer price index fell to 1.5% in August, which is the lowest level since November 2016. According to analysts, the current situation indicates the need to reduce interest rates in the UK. Weak macroeconomic statistics indicate that in the coming months the regulator may reduce interest rates. This is negative news for the British pound, analysts emphasize. It can noticeably lose in price.

Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the consolidation range near the levels of 1.2453–1.2445. According to preliminary forecasts, in the event of a decrease in the current level, a further drop is possible to the level of 1.2400. With the implementation of a more optimistic scenario and the breakdown of the upper region of 1.2490, growth is likely to reach 1.2555. After that, the potential to decline to the 1.2400 level is growing, analysts summarize.

An alarming situation in European markets is provoked by uncertainty about Brexit. Currently, the European Parliament has approved, by a majority vote, a deferral for the UK if it so requests. However, this event has already been taken into account by the market, and the pound will not receive strong support from this news. In this situation, investors and traders will invest in more reliable assets, analysts are certain.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 547
Page:   <<   < prev  24 25 26 27 [28]
All Forums >> [Market Talk] >> Technical Analysis >> RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex Page: <<   < prev  24 25 26 27 [28]
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 Unicode

0.181