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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/16/2017 11:34:27 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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The dollar remained without support

The US dollar finished the week with large-scale sales, never seeing a single factor that could support it. The formal reason for the decline in investor confidence was the report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on inflation, but this was not the only reason.

Consumer prices remained unchanged in June while annual inflation slowed to 1.6% from 1.9% a month earlier. Both indicators were worse than expected.

Also an unpleasant surprise was the decline in retail sales for the second month in a row. Experts expected a slight increase. The slowdown in consumer activity is an alarming factor as it indicates that incoming signals, one after another, about slower economic growth are not accidental and will likely cause a crisis to develop.

The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index according to the University of Michigan was significantly lower than expected at 93.1 points in July against the forecast of 95.0 points and last month's figure of 95.1 points. The subindex of expectations are declining at the fastest rate, indicating that consumers are preparing for a deterioration in the outlook for the coming months.

The GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts the US GDP growth for the second quarter at 2.4%. This is higher than the result of the first quarter but significantly below expectations. The first estimate, which was presented in May, came out at 4.3%. At the time, it seemed that the positive momentum in the economy will develop but for two months in a row, the key macroeconomic indicators are worse than forecasts.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York expects that GDP growth will be at 1.9% in Q2. However, this estimate may be too optimistic. At any rate, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking in Congress, said that achieving an economic growth of 3% "will be pretty hard." Recalling the basic scenario by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the average annual growth is set at 4%. Even in this case, the budget deficit in the next ten years will grow to 1.5 trillion dollars and reach a GDP of 5.2%. Weaker growth will significantly accelerate the development of a negative scenario. It can only be overcome through swift and decisive reforms while the situation develops in the opposite way. As indicated in the report of the Ministry of Finance published on Thursday, the budget deficit in June amounted to 90.233 billion dollar within the nine months of the current fiscal year. The negative balance grew by 31% and reached 523 billion. There is no reason to expect that the situation may change as the collection of taxes is reduced. Against the background of a drop in consumer activity, there is no chance of an increase of tax collection.

Actually, it was the reassessment of the player's prospects for the development of the situation that caused the dollar to fall sharply on Friday. It's not just a matter of low inflation. The fact is that even optimistic models (and the optimistic CBO forecast) do not see good exit scenarios. The Fed may begin to reduce the balance sheets in the coming months. In any case, the preparation of public opinion for this step is being carried out purposefully. Yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that it is necessary to start reducing the Fed's balance sheet "very soon", possibly in September. Low inflation, in his opinion, is temporary. He also added that the achievement of full employment will contribute to higher prices.

The beginning of the reduction in the balance of the Fed means terminating the practice of refinancing revenues. In other words, the Fed will gradually reduce the repayment of government debts which, against the background of a growing budget deficit and a reduction in the collection of taxes, can have extremely unpleasant consequences for the Trump administration. In September, the government should already receive a result regarding the level of borrowing from the Congress. This will exhaust the latest resources for financing current activities and will make them face the prospect of technical default. However, in order for the Congress to meet Trump and raise the ceiling of national debt, it will be necessary to convince him of the feasibility plans for reforming the tax and health policies. It is necessary to present these plans formally.

Thus, for the dollar, there is still no reason to resume growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 41
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/17/2017 11:49:15 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 18, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as NAHB Housing Market Index and Import Prices m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1528.
Strong Resistance:1.1521.
Original Resistance: 1.1510.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1499.
Target Inner Area: 1.1472.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1445.
Original Support: 1.1434.
Strong Support: 1.1423.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1416.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 42
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/18/2017 11:56:19 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 19, 2017

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7307. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.7307 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. So, major support is seen at the level of 0.7307. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7307 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7372. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7372, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7287.

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Post #: 43
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/18/2017 11:56:43 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 19, 2017

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7307. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.7307 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. So, major support is seen at the level of 0.7307. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7307 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7372. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7372, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7287.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 44
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/20/2017 12:05:09 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 20, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Press Conference, All Industries Activity m/m, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement, and Trade Balance data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 112.43.
Resistance. 2: 112.21.
Resistance. 1: 112.01.
Support. 1: 111.73.
Support. 2: 111.51.
Support. 3: 111.29.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 45
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/20/2017 11:55:17 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 21, 2017

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair.
Pivot: 0.9590.
The swissy fell from the level of 0.9665 to bottom at 0.9523. The USD/CHF pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.9523 (the double bottom). Current price is around the spot of 0.9520. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9523 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9523; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9523 and 0.9665. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.9665, while immediate resistance is found at 0.9590. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.9665 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9665, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9665. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.9746. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.9523 with the first target at the level of 1.9590 and continue towards the levels of 0.9665 and 0.9746. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.9590; the market will decline further to the level of 0.9453.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 46
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/24/2017 1:21:01 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 24, 2017



Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016. In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is being temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection if any bearish pullback occurs.

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends!
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Post #: 47
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/25/2017 1:22:30 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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AUD/USD prepare to sell on break of key support

The price is hovering above key support at 0.7871 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and we prepare to sell once price breaks this key level. Our profit target is a push down to next key support level at 0.7741 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

RSI (55) is seeing bearish momentum within its bearish descending channel.

Sell below 0.7871. Stop loss is at 0.7937. Take profit is at 0.7741.



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Post #: 48
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/26/2017 1:38:41 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9530 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9436 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is right on major resistance at 95%.

Sell below 0.9530. Stop loss is at 0.9563. Take profit is at 0.9436.



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Post #: 49
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/27/2017 12:08:49 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, GfK German Consumer Climate, and Spanish Unemployment Rate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1787.
Strong Resistance:1.1780.
Original Resistance: 1.1769.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1758.
Target Inner Area: 1.1730.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1702.
Original Support: 1.1691.
Strong Support: 1.1680. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1673.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 50
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/27/2017 11:14:23 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 yesterday. The level of 0.9579 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support today. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9728. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9666 and 0.9728. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9666. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9666 (the first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9728 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.952.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 51
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 7/31/2017 12:11:55 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as unemployment rate, Italian flash CPI m/m, core CPI flash estimate y/y, CPI flash estimate y/y, Italian monthly unemployment rate, and German retail sales m/m. The US will release its pending home sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So amid the reports, the EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:
Breakout buy Level: 1.1804.
Strong resistance:1.1797.
Original resistance: 1.1786.
Inner sell area: 1.1775.
Target inner area: 1.1747.
Inner buy area: 1.1719.
Original support: 1.1708.
Strong support: 1.1697.
Breakout sell level: 1.1690.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 52
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/1/2017 12:12:36 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

The price has bounced above our buying entry and is fast approaching our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 130.78 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a drop towards 129.96 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a strong drop from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY expecting drops. We are also expecting EUR weakness with strong resistance seen on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 130.78. Stop loss is at 131.08. Take profit is at 129.96.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 53
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/1/2017 11:51:41 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Joined: 5/16/2014
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 02, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 111.05.
Resistance. 2: 110.84.
Resistance. 1: 110.62.
Support. 1: 110.34.
Support. 2: 110.13.
Support. 3: 109.91.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 54
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/2/2017 3:58:48 AM   
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good analysis.















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(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 55
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/2/2017 11:33:26 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 209
Joined: 5/16/2014
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Inflation data reflected on the euro

Today's inflation data released in the first half of the day was not very encouraging for the European Central Bank. The regulator expects to achieve a target inflation rate just below 2.0%, which is still significantly out of its reach.

Producer prices fell in June, which goes against the ECB's plans to wind down monetary stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.

According to the European Union's statistics agency, the producer price index of the eurozone in June this year fell by 0.1% compared with May. It should be noted that the last increase of this index was recorded in January this year. The only consolation is that, compared with June last year, the index rose by 2.5%.

As seen from the recent data, the acceleration of economic growth has little effect on inflation.

Yesterday, data was released, which indicated that the euro area's GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter and by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The current exchange rate of the euro against a number of other currencies also creates a number of setbacks to exports and could adversely affect the rate of economic growth by the fourth quarter of this year.

Today it also became known that the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in Switzerland increased by 0.8 points in July, to 60.9 points. Such indicators indicate very serious signs of further acceleration of activity in the manufacturing industry in Switzerland.

Nevertheless, the Swiss franc still remains under pressure against the euro and the US dollar. The USD/CHF pair rose sharply, having reached the level of 0.9700, the breakthrough of which will open the opportunity to update the July highs to around 0.9730.

Data in the second half of the day on the labor market in the US did not make have any significant impact to the market.

According to the report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 178, 000 in July this year, while economists forecast a bigger job increase of 180,000. The June data were revised. So, the number of new jobs for the month was 191,000, not 158,000, as previously reported.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 56
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/4/2017 12:27:46 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 04, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.63.
Resistance. 2: 110.41.
Resistance. 1: 110.20.
Support. 1: 109.93.
Support. 2: 109.72.
Support. 3: 109.50.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 57
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/7/2017 12:28:08 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EUR/JPY prepare to buy on major support

The price is now testing major support at 130.19 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bullish divergence) and we expect to see a strong bounce above this level for a push up to 131.03 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 7.8% and also sees bullish divergence signaling that a bounce is impending.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and USD/JPY.

Buy above 130.19. Stop loss is at 129.76. Take profit is at 131.03.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 58
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/7/2017 11:34:03 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Joined: 5/16/2014
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 59
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/8/2017 11:37:04 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Joined: 5/16/2014
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Germany shows its poor performance

Data for France and Germany, which came out in the morning, were completely ignored by the market. The low intraday volatility, which did not exceed 20 points in the EURUSD pair, indicates that many investors and traders prefer to take some pause, since the US dollar's rally since Friday is no longer supported by large players, and many market participants are in a bit of a confusion and are unsure how to proceed.

According to the statistics agency, there is a decline in German imports and exports. However, this has not yet affected the foreign trade balance.

As indicated in the report, Germany's exports in June this year compared with May decreased by 2.8%, while the reduction in imports was 4.5%. Germany's foreign trade surplus in June amounted to 21.2 billion euros, while economists predicted the trade balance at the level of 21.4 billion euros. It should be noted that as early as May of this year, the surplus passed the 20 billion euros mark for the first time.

The reduction in industrial production in Germany, which was reported yesterday, along with today's data, is the first alarm bell that the economic growth rate of the first-largest euro-zone economy is gradually slowing down, which will undoubtedly affect the indicators for the second quarter of this year.

According to the statistics agency, the current deficit in France's balance of payments increased. This happened due to the sharper than expected decline in exports.

According to the report, in June this year the negative balance of the current account the balance of payments totaled to 2.1 billion euros against 1.9 billion euros in May. The trade deficit rose to 4.7 billion euros. The deficit of the state budget of France in June rose to 62.3 billion euros from 61.8 billion euros in May. Since the inauguration of the new president of France, very little time has passed, but, as we recall, Macron promised to give a lot of effort to combat the budget deficit.

In the afternoon, data came from The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, according to which retail sales increased during the reporting week. So, the index of sales in US retail chains increased by 2.4% for the week from July 30 to August 5, while in comparison with the same period last year the index grew by 1.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared to the morning review.

A further downward trend will be entirely fixed at yesterday's support level of 1.1790, to gain a foothold below which it has not yet been possible. Selling is recommended after the return of the trading instrument under the level of 1.1790, with the main goal of reducing the support area to 1.1740. A breakthrough in this area will open up the possibility of the euro falling to new weekly lows of around 1.1670.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 60
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