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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017 - 4/5/2017 5:04:05 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.

The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.

However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017 - 4/6/2017 1:45:46 AM   
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The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.

The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.

However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.

For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.



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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017 - 4/7/2017 3:47:01 AM   
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The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.




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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017 - 4/7/2017 4:01:45 AM   
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The New Zealand dollar surged following a break higher than the peak of the hammer during the Thursday session. A strong resistance level is found at 0.70 handle. It is anticipated for the pair to have a volatility and it could increase towards the 0.71 handle when the jobs data comes out and break higher than 0.70 mark. There could also be reversals and the support level to position close to the 0.69 handle. Nevertheless, traders should expect volatility for today’s trading session.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017 - 4/10/2017 5:03:17 AM   
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The European currency was kept intact below the pressured area against its U.S peer which would likely post further losses. Germany released a mixed data while exports and imports did not meet traders’ expectations. The strong figures of Trade Balance have given support for the EUR. On the other hand, the dovish remarks of ECB President, Draghi place pressure on the major.

The entire perspective showed moderate changes on Friday. The EUR/USD stayed near the neutral spot during the morning session as its trades close to the lower end of its weekly narrow range. Moreover, the sellers came in active in the first part of the day pulling the spot downwards. The major cut through the level 1.0650 touching 1.0630 amid late trading of Europe.
Renewed selling pressure occurred prior the New York open. Sellers were able to direct the price through the points 1.0610-1.0600.

The price settled under the moving averages as registered in the 4-hour chart, 100 and 50-EMAs turned lower while 200-EMA continued to heads up.

Resistance reached 1.0650 area, support highlighted 1.0600 region.

The MACD histogram softened which signaled sellers’ strength. RSI headed southwards confirming a current downtrend.

The spot is expected to resume a bearish tone within a short period of time. A break under 1.0600 is awaited as it may trigger for a lower support.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017 - 4/11/2017 12:15:01 AM   
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The Australian dollar became weak on Friday along the sluggish statistics of Performance of Construction Index. Meanwhile, the risk off sentiment amid Asian session have put pressure on risk assets including treasury yields, equities, and the Aussie.

The pair continued to be well offered last Friday and resumed a negative sentiment throughout the day. The AUD leave the region 0.7550 during the night trades extending its bearish impetus within the day.

The sellers were able to reach the 0.7515 mark and rebounded. The major hovered over its session lows until the outset of North American hours.

As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD is positioned under the moving averages which shifted lower. Resistance holds 0.7550, support pierced into 0.7500.

The MACD histogram sustained its level affirming sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is found near the oversold territory which signaled a lover move.

Forecast says the pair would continue to decline within a short period of time. We still expect for a further move towards 0.7500.




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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 12, 2017 - 4/12/2017 4:12:08 AM   
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The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesday’s session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.

There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.

Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.

It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.

For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.




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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017 - 4/17/2017 3:18:44 AM   
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A sell-off occurred last Thursday was followed by the building recovery attempt by the single European currency on Friday. Meanwhile, sellers were unable to cut through below the region 1.0600. In light of this, the price resulted to rebound through the level during the night and trailed northwards amid day trading.

The EURUSD highlighted 1.0625 in the late session of Europe. Resistance entered the area 1.0650 while the support lies at the mark 1.0600.

A fresh bearish pressure is expected in the short-term. A breakout within 1.0600 would direct to its next objective at 1.0550.

Moreover, the major headed through 1.0650 for a correction. A gapped near the region would extend the recovery towards 1.0675. A bounced off hitherto will send back bearishness in the market.


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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017 - 4/18/2017 3:30:49 AM   
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The 1.2500 level halted the sellers activity on Thursday. The price rebounded the mark during the Asian hours and continued to climb higher. The British currency strengthen overnight and highlighted the area 1.2515 during the first part of the day.

The spot maintained a spot nearly its recent highs within the day. Resistance is at 1.2600 region, support touched the 1.2500 range.

It is much anticipated for a move below the 1.2400 area.




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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017 - 4/18/2017 4:19:03 AM   
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The US dollar crashed to its lowest levels within a five-month period against the Japanese yen as a reaction to North Korea-related tensions during the previous weekend. However, as the USD/JPY pair came within a major retracement barrier at 107.856 points, the USD managed to recover its losses and closed down on a much higher level than expected. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 108.904 points.

The current volatility level of the USD/JPY pair has been mostly influenced by the price action of the US Treasuries. US bond prices crashed during the previous session immediately after reaching an all-time high since November last year. Now that both the USD/JPY pair and Treasury yields are on their lowest rungs since November 2016, a lot of investors are now speculating that the Trump administration will be unable to complete its campaign promises within the preset timeframe, including the implementation of a new healthcare plan, tax cuts, and even imposing an increased fiscal spending mechanism. In addition, some traders are also saying that the USD was propelled forward by reports that Trump is leaning towards appointing a bank-friendly figure for the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for bank supervision post.

For today’s session, the course of the USD/JPY pair is expected to be dominated mostly by investor sentiment as well as Treasury yields. The currency pair will be able to regain its momentum only if there is an increase in yields and if investors put their interests towards high-earning assets.




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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017 - 4/19/2017 12:01:32 AM   
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The GBP/USD pair traded on a strong note during yesterday’s session as it was able to not only maintain its gains but has also managed to propel itself forward and attempt to make a dent in the resistance region situated at 1.2600 points. As of the moment it is still unable to make a significant impact in this particular region but it has yet to be seen whether it will be able to make a dent as the European traders are now going back to work after the holidays. A retraction towards the 1.2500 trading range is expected to occur before making any serious gains.

The sterling pound has been doing really well as the market is now waiting for the start of the Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK officials. The negotiations are expected to be very long and very winding, and both sides should be able to hold onto their respective gains. The Brexit process itself is also expected to affect the sterling pound in the long run. The string of economic data released from the UK economy looks good so far, with the Bank of England managing to hold the current economic situation together, however it remains to be seen whether it will still be able to do so once the negotiations begin. The 1.2600 region is expected to be sustained but as the negotiations wear on, this is expected to induce additional volatility into the pair and this is why traders should be extra careful when it comes to trading with the GBP/USD pair in the medium term outlook.

There are no major news releases from both the UK and the US economy for today, and as such, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its current trend of ranging and consolidation with a bullish undertone as it again tries to break through the 1.2600 range.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017 - 4/19/2017 1:38:16 AM   
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The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during the Tuesday session intersecting the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. There is a significant support found below at 0.75 level and a sign of supportive candle pattern indicates buying opportunity. If the price breaks above the shooting star on Monday session, this signals a bullish tone. Hence, it is much favorable to go long for this pair. The gold market could support this pair which is influential for this pair.

The pair broke lower than the 0.7535 support level indicating that the price moves upward from 0.7473 up to 0.7610 zone. This could further go down towards the next testing at 0.7473 support level and a breakdown in the said level will complete the downtrend indicating a continuation from 0.7749 mark towards 0.7300 area.




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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017 - 4/20/2017 10:49:04 PM   
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The British pound versus the U.S. dollar sustained the bid tone during the Tuesday Asian session. The price climbed from 1.2550 during the night and proceeded towards the 1.2600 level the next morning. The pound rebounded moved downhill during the post-London open. It almost reached the 1.2500 level as the trend turned bullish again. It surged upwards reversing losses as it broke exceeding the 1.2600 mark.

The Resistance level came in at 1.2700 while the support level was seen at 1.2600 mark. If the market is capable of sustaining the psychological levels higher than the 1.2600, the buyers will have the upper hand towards 1.2700.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 20, 2017 - 4/21/2017 12:26:17 AM   
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The EUR/USD pair encountered a lot of selling pressure after it reached the 1.0750 trading range and was unable to make any significant progress beyond this particular region. The currency pair has tried in vain to break through this range and has since then resorted to consolidating between 1.0750 and 1.0700 region for the duration of yesterday’s session, with the pair’s bulls mostly responsible for maintaining the pair’s position within its range highs.

There were no economic news released during the previous session and this is why the EUR/USD pair merely engaged in a ranging and consolidating mode with a bullish undertone for the US dollar. The USD strength was not that pronounced and was only able to induce a minor correction in the EUR/USD pair. However, there are some members of the ECB that are saying that economic speculations in the eurozone could possibly exceed market expectations, however this did not make a significant dent in the current value of the EUR/USD pair. The 1.0750 trading range could possibly be a good position for the pair’s bears to push the currency pair down, where the selling is expected to surge. The currency pair could also possibly correct towards 1.0600 unless a major market phenomenon shocks the market yet again.

For today’s trading session, the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data as
well as its Manufacturing Index data while there are no expected releases from the EU economy. The US Treasury secretary will also be making a speech within the day and this is expected to increase today’s market volatility. On the other hand, the USD is expected to hold its ground and the currency pair will most likely remain within its current range.




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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 24, 2017 - 4/24/2017 3:31:53 AM   
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The U.S. dollar paired against the Canadian dollar surged during the Friday session as it broke above the 1.35 handle as it has been before. This could climb higher but at the same time, this will bring high volatility in the market. The oil market could support this trend especially when it drops which is not far from happening.

Overall, the trend gives a bullish tone and reversals could create opportunities to go long for this pair. If the pair breaks higher than the 1.36 level, the trading condition could switch to a “buy and hold” scenario in the market.




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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 24, 2017 - 4/24/2017 4:25:49 AM   
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This week showed that the pair GBP/JPY have rallied throughout the week, hitting the handle 140.

In case that the 141 region will be broken, the market would advanced higher. A pullback with buying opportunities is significant except that we could cut down lower than the weekly lows.

It is highly expected that the market will resume its activity to search for buyers considering the British currency to gain much strength.

Keep in mind that the GBP/JPY is very much susceptible to risk appetite which is important for you to be aware of the stock markets. Moreover, it is possible that 150 handle will be the most profitable level.




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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017 - 4/26/2017 11:02:03 PM   
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On Tuesday, the Euro bulls were able to win back the driver’s seat following a neutral position in the night.

The major were removed from the region 1.0850 during the morning trades of Europe as it moved and rallied near its fresh peaks found at 1.0900 mark.

The price halted within the 1.0900 in which the EURUSD eyes some renewed offers. The single European currency had moderately eased eliminating its entire gains in the morning eventually.

As shown in the 4-hour chart the technical indicators appeared to be bullish. Resistance touched 1.0900 level, support pierced through 1.0850 range.

Moreover, a close over 1.0900 is expected to yield fresh bullish indicator in order to move further. It could probably reach the 1.0950 hurdle but correction is not ruled out as a means of filling the gap.



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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017 - 4/26/2017 11:58:37 PM   
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The general situation persists to manifest the same scene as of Tuesday. The British currency seems rangebound amid day trades. The price has already reached the band’s lower limit during the first part of the day and rebounded afterward.

The spot stalled having touched the range’s upper limit while technical indicators are in mixed signals.

Moreover, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) trailed lower while the RSI together with the MACD showed positive indications. Resistance entered 1.2900 level, support entered 1.2800 area.

A negative scenario is projected to take place. In case that the GBPUSD touched below the 1.2800 support region will trigger a downtrend in the near future.




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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017 - 5/1/2017 11:27:28 PM   
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Investors on the USD/JPY pair chose to pay no mind to the relatively weak economic data coming from the US and instead shifted its focus on the recent increase in the demand for high-yield assets such as stocks, as well as an increase in the yields of US Treasuries. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 11.824 points after increasing by +0.30% or 0.335 points.

A drop in the US economy’s inflation and factory rates has put out any possible expectations for an interest rate hike this coming June from the Fed. Meanwhile, the PCE index dropped by 0.1 points last March, the index’s largest decrease ever since September 2001. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index increased by 1.6%, which is its smallest gain since July 2016. US Treasury yields surged yesterday after the US government managed to avoid a possible shutdown after clinching a deal for government funding. Equity prices also managed to climb higher, which also heightened the demand for high-risk assets and diminished the demand for the Japanese yen.

The USD/JPY pair could possibly find more support just as long as there is a demand for high-yield assets. However, the currency pair quickly became range-bound since investors are now bracing themselves for the Fed’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday. As of the moment, the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement an interest rate hike this coming Wednesday, however the USD/JPY could possibly be influenced by the central bank’s statement tomorrow. Traders are advised to look for any clues with regards to the Fed’s next timing for its interest rate hike.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017 - 5/2/2017 2:43:41 AM   
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The EUR/USD pair exhibited a ranging and consolidation during the duration of yesterday’s session. It was a market holiday yesterday in several parts of Europe and Asia, and this is why the market volatility and liquidity levels were on a low during the previous session. In addition, traders are also proceeding with caution since the first week of the month is usually characterized by an influx of economic readings from last month.

These factors were the main reason why the currency pair consolidated within a small range of less than 50 pips. Today could be considered as the legitimate start of the week, and now that there is an expected surge of data coming from last month, the market is expected to undergo some significant volatility for today. The EUR/USD pair ran at 200 pips during the previous week following the results of French national elections, and this is why the currency pair could possibly be subject to corrections, although it has yet to be seen just how significant these corrections would be. The 1.0850 trading range is expected to ward off any corrections at least for the time being while the market waits for the release of economic data this week. The FOMC meeting minutes, the NFP report, and a speech from Yellen will be released within the week which could induce volatility in the pair. However, the market will be looking out for any hints of a Fed rate hike this June and if this does not happen, then the EUR/USD pair could possibly test the 1.1000 trading range.

For today’s session, there are no major economic releases from both the EU and US economy for today, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo a consolidation with bearish undertones for the rest of today’s session.




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