It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.
What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.
For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative