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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 4/16/2018 7:46:11 PM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 16, 2018

Missile launch directed to the specific target in Syria from the U.S. and their allies although the effect is not that big impact. Last week, there are topics regarding the possibility of a war between the U.S. and Syria. The situation is worsening that resulted in choppiness in the market.

A lot of investors has become anxious because of choppiness and the market has become more appealing. Hence, the trend was seen to have consolidated and trades in a range. The attacks over the weekend were said to be from the United States. On a lighter note, this is just for short-term which happened one time that cooled down concerns about a war. This has largely calmed down the market that is reflected in the market in the present condition.

Euro has been trading in a range for a number of weeks already and the tendency to break out in any direction is not clearly visible at this time. Although, there are breakout attempts on either side but did not come out with anything due to uncertainties caused by various factors including the area of Syria, the trade war between China and the U.S. as well as, the QE program.

For today, the retail sales data from the U.S. is unexpected to be released today as the first day of the week. Nonetheless, there is a slow data for today. Excluding the geopolitics concern, this data is anticipated to be more appealing that could initiate the trend for short-term.





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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 5/8/2018 1:46:20 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 7, 2018

Investors are observing the movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures contract following the appreciation of the USD/JPY pair. The statements and the recent jobs report influencing the 10-year Treasury notes, which is likely to be bullish especially that it is in inverse relationship to the interest rates. An increase in the T-notes would then lead to a drop in yields. A weaker Treasury yield would bring pressure to the Japanese major pair.

The USD/JPY pair began the week with higher expectations of the interest rates prior to the latest Fed monetary policy statement yet, the price movements suggests the disappointment to the reports. The pair rallied for the week to the highest level at 110.028 since February 5. However, the pair withdrew by -0.12% or 0.127 and closed the week lower at 109.060.

On May 2, the funds' rate sustained the target of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent according to the Federal Open Market Committee, which is already anticipated. They say that the overall inflation excluding food and energy is close to the two percent. The economy has improved as the business fixed investment grew more steadfast.

Unanimously, the committee has decided to keep the rates unchanged disregarding the expectation of public for an aggressive course of action. Various officials are scheduled to have their speech in the upcoming days.

Fed has not given any signals to the pace of future hikes which investors believe to be implemented twice with the next rate hike anticipated in June. Subsequent rate hikes will probably be around after four months or on the last month of the year.

As they aim to hold the rate hikes twice with the not-so-good U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. The headline resulted below expectations as the unemployment rate reached an 18-year low. The average hourly earning seems to have the inflation out of control.

Selling pressure would persist to control the USD/JPY pair this week with investors continue to book profits after the Fed announcement on Wednesday, as well as, the U.S. jobs report on Friday.

The sentiment of the Federal Reserve was relatively dovish while allowing the inflation to purse the two percent target. Moreover, the wage growth did not meet expectations on the employment report released on Friday.

Besides the bullish trend of the 10-year Treasury notes futures contract which inversely affects the drop of yields, traders were able to place money on the net short position of the 10-year futures, with over 1 million shorts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

However, the USD/JPY could decline sharply if these shorts start to cover.

Based on the latest reports, the inflation will be the main focus due to the anticipated release on the Producer s on Wednesday and Consumer Price on Thursday.

Some speakers including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an assembly on Wednesday at 19.15 GMT.


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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 5/9/2018 10:19:08 PM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2018

The British pound declined almost throughout the Tuesday session in order to test the major uptrend line once again. The 1.35 level is still significant given that it is psychologically relevant. There is also a lot of buying and selling in this area previously, which, at the same time, coincides with the major upward line. Hence, in consideration of these factors, there will be a decision soon.

The British currency dropped during the Tuesday session in reaching the uptrend line at 1.35 level. Essentially, a breakdown below could push the price further towards 1.33. Ultimately, a breakdown could loosen up sharply since the uptrend line is important. The level of 1.30 if a significant level as much as the 1.35 handle. I presume that a breakdown is logical since the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen in the summer season.

The European Central Bank has already announced that interest rates will be maintained a bit lower for a period of time that previously considered, which, in turn, added pressure on Sterling. Although this might be just for short-term and in the next few months, it is likely for buyers to return in this currency. However, the U.S. dollar will probably grow in the upcoming months which would greatly affect the currencies relative to the bond market and of course interest rate expectations. Alternately, if a breakout occurs at 1.3650 level, then there is a chance for a kick in upward momentum.




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Post #: 443
RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 5/16/2018 12:22:27 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2018

The week began for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar in testing the psychological level of 1.2750 for support. The market will probably stay in this area and bounce more than once.

During the Monday trading session, the greenback slid lower and reaches the level of 1.2750. If the pair breaks down again below the 1.27 level, the price could further go down towards 1.25. Alternately, if the price breaks above the level of 1.28 instead, the next course will be towards 1.30. Noise will still be present in the market around the said level with a lot of variable factors to affect the trades. The U.S. is likely to pick up momentum due to higher interest rates again in the previous weeks but it was not favorable for the greenback yesterday.

The oil is starting to rally again but could add more pressure on the market. We should focus on the 10-year treasury note in the United States and if the interest rates drop as well, this is a bad sign that would propel the market lower. There is a lot happening for the Canadian dollar yet above the level of 1.30 offers a lot of resistance, which is very apparent on the trend, with a lot of noise for a while now. In case that the market breaks through above 1.30 for some time, the price will continue to climb higher. Otherwise, we should anticipate a lot of noise for the bank and a technician to rise higher for a bit.



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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 5/18/2018 12:11:58 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 17, 2018

The U.S. dollar moved along against the Canadian dollar on Wednesday but slid down following the release of a lower inventory data that came out during the day. This is favorable for the Canadian dollar but there are factors in play for long-term.

The result went for a bullish sentiment for oil, as well as, the Canadian dollar. It dropped as low as 1.2770 at the beginning, prior to a rebound. There is also an important support found just below the level of 1.2750. Thus, I anticipate for bounce off since there is more interest on the interest rate differential more than anything else just below 1.2450 handle as of the moment. Indeed, loonies can be used as a proxy in the oil market which is likely to persist but the headline is no focus on the 10-year interest rates in America.

The rate hike attracts more demand for the greenback, which will then lead to a higher exchange rate, especially since the economy is cooling down. Interest rates are likely to rise higher soon. Actually, the oil market is one of the factors that support the loonies. If this is reversed, it will rally to the upper region. We should expect some bounce later on, which would open buying opportunity, especially when the 10-year interest rates in the U.S. break higher than the 3.06% level, which is an indicator that more investors are looking out for. Shorting this pair may not be possible until it reaches a fresh new low.




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Post #: 445
RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 5/23/2018 12:16:10 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 22, 2018

The British pound slightly declined at the beginning of the Monday session as it reached the level of 1.34 before finding buyers. Since there are still signs of support, it looks like it supported the fight for buyers. Yet, there are some major concerns above.

Trading the British major currency pair slid down towards the psychological level of 1.34 before going up again. It has shown a significant amount of bullish pressure but there could also be signs of significant resistance in the previous uptrend line, established in the yellow ellipse on the chart. This gives a significant amount of resistance with a high probability of a rollover then we could look for the level 1.34 below, which was also supportive in the past. A breakdown below would allow the market for a decline up to the level of 1.33 and further to 1.30.

We should be cautious of any rally, at least not until a successful breakout to 1.3550. For now, we could reverse the whole situation completely, but I think there will also be a continuation of dollar strengthening in the short-term, which is likely to extend for the rest of the summer and continue its rally in the U.S. When a breakdown occurs below the uptrend line, this could become a problem for the British pound. Although, it may not necessarily be a problem as much as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. I would look for some type of exhaustive candle near the area of 1.3475 to begin shorting this pair.





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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 6/13/2018 1:22:35 AM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 11, 2018

The pound/dollar pair continued to trade around the 1.3430 region on the back of the failure to create bullish momentum in the previous week, as it was beaten by the major handle and the markets are waiting for further progress in Brexit this week. Due to the scheduled FOMC rate hike in the upcoming week, the interest rate differential of the GBP and the USD is predicted to move in different directions which could hold the Pound on its starting position and push the British currency into the recent lows. Following the recently rejected Irish border solution, market participants await for further news within this week while the United Kingdom continue to negotiate in looking for the middle ground for the hard-line Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Theresa May was caught in between and trying to find fair solutions for both sides.

The upcoming week is projected to be really busy for the Sterling pound since 4 out of 5 trading session this week brought extreme impact to the UK calendar that could support a high level of volatility for market players. Today has plenty of data for Britain which will be all published at 08:30 GMT, however, the focus will be on the Manufacturing Industrial Production data which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%. The US session today appears to be in smooth sailing according to the economic calendar, but traders might deal with the G7 summit blowout, wherein US President Donald Trump leave the summit earlier and depart the US’ support of the G7 communiqué, following a Tweet from POTUS aboard Air Force One heads to Singapore for the Trump-Kim summit.

At the same time, the figures for Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr), Claimant Count Change (May), Core CPI & PPI input and Core retail sales in the next three consecutive trading sessions. Moreover, the daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair corrected higher from the lows of 1.3205 alongside the diverging technical oscillators. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had an unexpected move towards the oversold area and bounced back to the GBP, which descends to the levels of the beginning of last week. The Slow Stochastic resumed moving in an upward trajectory. The daily chart of the 50-day and 100-day moving average formed a death star crossover, this means that there is an initial downside potential of the Cable pair to break the 1.3300 region prior attacking the area of 1.3200. The upside of the pair is necessary to break back above the 1.3380 to the 1.3450 target, which is the last week’s high.




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RE: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart - 6/18/2018 11:38:02 PM   
Andrea ForexMart

 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 18, 2018

The British pound was able to dodge the immediate impact of the rise of the dollar while the euro dropped by two significant points that dominate the market in the previous week. The dollar gained from the rate hike which started by the Fed and the positive outlook of the Fed in the economy.

The hawkish sentiments gave t chance to the dollar to rise and the dollar bulls to plan ahead with two more rate hikes to look forward to. The Fed gives similar signals which still yet to be seen if they would continue the process and they would implement this in a specific period of time later on. We have witnessed that the rate hike would have minimal impact on the market, especially on the pound.

It seems that everything is going smoothly in the UK as the Brexit negotiation starts to advance and there are no signs of risks yet. Hence, the pound maintained its position in the support area despite the strengthening of the dollar and activities in the eurozone. The European Central Bank decided to extend the easing program which in turn, weakened the euro. Although, these things did not really affect the pound as it continues to trade close to the area of 1.32.

There are some strong purchasing in this area, as well as at the level of 1.30. Once this is achieved, the lead will be in the hands of the bulls which is likely to be maintained in short term. It seems that there is also no major event to affect the movements and we can say that the price is in consolidation and persists to be within the range for the day.




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